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FEBRUARY 24,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

MESSAGE TO HOLLYWOOD – From mrctv.org:   Despite all of the controversy over the Oscars being #SoWhite, the reality is that a majority of Americans don’t actually care about the Academy Awards at all.  YouGov asked 1,000 Americans from Jan. 21-22 about their opinions on the alleged racial controversy in the Oscars. One of the questions was, bluntly, “How much do you care about the Academy Awards?”  In response, a vast majority — 62 percent — responded that they do not care “at all” about the Academy Awards. The poll found 29 percent of respondents care “a little” about the Oscars, while only seven percent care “a lot.”  An industry that ruined itself.  They forgot what "entertainment" means.  And they forgot what "story" means.

PATHETIC – Vermont's other senator, from the Washington Free Beacon:   Sen. Patrick Leahy (D., Vt.) laid out a defense for Iran capturing U.S. Navy sailors during a Senate hearing Wednesday with Secretary of State John Kerry.  During the hearing for the State Department’s budget, Leahy asked Kerry what would have happened if the tables had been reversed in January.  “If we had an Iranian boat, warship, military, either boat or ship, armed Iranians on it, say it came, uh, along the coastal and pick a place within our waters, say South Carolina, and was well within the U.S. borders, perhaps had the engines stopped, but armed Iranians, would we not at least hold them until we found out what they were doing?” Leahy asked.  What a pathetic question for a United States senator, helping to provide a rationale for American sailors being captured.  The hippies of Vermont must love him.

POOR HILLARY, I FEEL HER PAIN – From the New York Post:   Hillary Clinton doubled down Tuesday on her resistance to releasing transcripts of her paid speeches, arguing that she’s being held to a different standard than other presidential candidates.  “Why is there one standard for me and not for everybody else?” she said to applause during a CNN Democratic town hall in Columbia, SC.  I agree with her!  It's time the media stopped judging Hillary by a lower standard.  Same goes for Obama.  This bigotry must end.

YOUR TAX DOLLARS AT WORK – From Daily Caller:   Rima Nelson disappeared from public view after the St. Louis Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) hospital she managed potentially exposed 1,800 patients to HIV, was closed twice for serious medical safety issues and ranked dead last in patient satisfaction.  But Nelson wasn’t fired. Her VA superiors hid her literally on the other side of the Earth in 2013 at the department’s only foreign facility, a seldom-used clinic inside the palatial U.S. Embassy in the Philippines capital city of Manila.  She resides in a government-provided condo and gets the same $160,000 salary she made in St. Louis, which allows her to live like royalty in a country where the average person makes only $2,500 a year.  I guess this is what socialists mean when they say the government will take care of you.  Of course, it depends on what "you" means.

February 24,  2016     Permalink 

NOBODY KNOWS ANYTHING – AT 10:32 A.M. ET:  That's what the writer William Goldman said about Hollywood.  It could just as easily been said about this election campaign.  "Analysts," and that includes me, do not normally predict the rise of a blowhard New York real-estate developer and reality TV star.  We normally don't put "President" and "Trump" together in the same sentence.  Nor do we confidently predict that an ancient socialist senator from Vermont could challenge the mighty Hillary for the Democratic presidential nomination.

And as for predicting the virtual numbing of the Democratic and Republican national committees, forget about it.  Who saw it coming?  Nobody knows anything.

What we do know is that Super Tuesday is six days away.  There is not much of value to be said between now and then, except for reporting the practice of politics itself.  But next Tuesday may be decisive.  From Chris Stirewalt at Fox:     

...party elders, including former presidents and nominees remain on the sidelines. With less than a week before D-Day, 2012 nominee Mitt Romney, former President George W. Bush and many others have at most offered modest reproofs of Trump even as Republicans have grown increasingly alarmed by Trump’s rhetoric.

And while endorsements have begun to flow in for second-place Sen. Marco Rubio, the kind of large-scale show of party unity in support that could signal to voters the urgency of the moment still seems beyond the horizon.

In a year in which we were told about the power of super PACs and outside money, tens of millions have been squandered to no great effect other than helping Trump. The relative pittance that has been spent against him is so small as to be meaningless. And there is no sign that the cash cavalry is coming in the week ahead.

What would have to be different for Trump to be denied? Focused attacks on Trump from candidates and outside groups as well as fewer candidates. Not all of those things would have to be accomplished in full before March 1, but the party would have to show significant movement in that direction for claims of Rubio’s viability and Trump’s vulnerability to be credible.

That’s a big to-do list for six days, especially for a party that has mostly stood mouth-agape and motionless for most of this cycle.

COMMENT:  Conventional wisdom this morning echoes Stirewalt's well-written analysis.  Something dramatic has to occur to deny Trump the nomination, and it ain't occurring, at least not yet.

There could also be a rethinking by voters in the Super Tuesday states.  But, if anything, rethinking by the public has simply brought greater strength to Trump.  Voting Tuesday.  Be there.

February 24, 2016       Permalink

MORE TROUBLE FOR HILLARY – AT 9:55 A.M. ET:  Is anyone surprised?  Hillary is trouble defined.  But, with an FBI probe hanging over her, she doesn't need more problems with the law, and that's what she's getting.  From the Washington Free Beacon:   

A federal court ruled on Tuesday that a watchdog group could request testimony from Hillary Clinton’s State Department aides in connection with her private email server, a decision that could eventually lead to a subpoena for Hillary Clinton.

D.C. District Court Judge Emmet G. Sullivan granted a motion for discovery filed by Judicial Watch, a conservative watchdog group that is suing the U.S. State Department for records related to Clinton’s time as secretary of state.

Judicial Watch is seeking information about whether Clinton and her aides intentionally dodged public records laws by using a private email server. The organization said it would ask to depose former State Department officials as part of the discovery process.

Tom Fitton, president of Judicial Watch, called the judge’s decision “a major victory for the public’s right to know the truth about Hillary Clinton’s email system.” He also said it may eventually be necessary for Clinton to testify.

“Our proposed discovery, which will require court approval, will include testimony of current and former officials of the State Department,” said Fitton. “While Mrs. Clinton’s testimony may not be required initially, it may happen that her testimony is necessary for the Court to resolve the legal issues about her unprecedented email practices.”

COMMENT:  It's one thing after another.  Hillary might well be building to victory in her nomination struggle, but the law can get her before she claims her party's designation.  On the other hand, legal delay and friends in high places might help her out.

The dilemma:  What happens if Hillary is elected president and then is either indicted or damned by the legal process?  Under our legal system, there'd be nothing to prevent her from being inaugurated.  She might even be able to pardon herself, something she'd have the nerve to do.

But don't think the problems are all on one side.  If Trump is nominated, the opposition research will be HUGE, absolutely HUGE.  The man has been involved in zillions of lawsuits.  He may make Hillary look like Goody Two-Shoes.

February 24, 2016       Permalink

IN THE REAL WORLD – AT 9:38 A.M. ET:  Rather than jump right into politics, I thought we'd begin this morning by reminding ourselves that there's a real world out there, and our country isn't doing very well in dealing with it.  Field Marshal Obama has 11 months in his term.  From The Hill:

The U.S. has lost ground in the fight against Islamic extremism, the former commander of U.S. forces in the Middle East said in a recent interview.

"Unfortunately, we have lost ground over time," said retired Gen. John P. Abizaid, former commander of U.S. Central Command in an interview published in this month's West Point's Combating Terrorism Center's magazine.

"The scope of the ideological movement, the geographic dispersion of Islamic extremism, the number of terror attacks, the number of people swearing allegiance, and the ground they hold have all increased," said Abizaid.

"Groups like the Islamic State have now taken on state-like forms and features that are unlike anything we’ve seen in the past. So on balance we are in a worse position strategically with regard to the growth of international terrorism, Islamic terrorism in particular, than we were after September 2001," he said.

The dire assessment highlights the difficulty the Obama administration faces as it tries to accelerate the campaign against ISIS in its remaining 10 months in office.

The administration is also facing increased pressure — mostly from Republicans, but also from other quarters — to do more to stop ISIS in Libya.

The administration says the primary focus will remain on Iraq and Syria, but that it will also strike ISIS in other places, such as Afghanistan and Libya, if an opportunity arises.

However, with only 10 months remaining in the administration, there is little time for doing significantly more, and the administration has sidestepped questions into whether there will be a more robust effort to go after ISIS in Libya.

COMMENT:  It would have been nice had the reporter gotten the number of months left in the Obama administration correct.  It's 11, not 10.  But, as they say, we'll let it pass.

Abizaid assessment is grim.  Who we elect as president in November may well determine our fate in the war against Islamic extremism.  Then again, it may not.  Even a president with the right focus may come up with the wrong strategy. 

If Hillary is elected, I do believe she'd be better than Obama – although the standard is low – but she may be restrained by the divisions within her own party.

February 24,  2016     Permalink

FEBRUARY 23,  2016

THERE'LL BE NO "SHORT TAKES" TONIGHT BECAUSE I'VE BEEN WATCHING RESULTS FROM NEVADA, AND THE ACCOMPANYING ANALYSIS, CAREFULLY.

2:52 A.M. ET:  It's hard to believe what we're seeing.  In Nevada, Donald Trump not only won, but burst through his previous highs.  Right now he's running at about 47% of the vote.  Rubio is second with about 24%, and Cruz third with about 20%.  Those figures change periodically, but only by small amounts.

It's astounding what Trump has accomplished, against all the conventional, and some unconventional wisdom.

We should point out that Nevada is a caucus state, not a true primary state.  Caucuses can be confused and disorganized.   They are sensitive to weather conditions, and the candidate's organization on the ground.  But next Tuesday, March 1st, is Super Tuesday.   Here is a map of what Super Tuesday looks like.  The states are weighted toward the South, with Democrats and Republicans voting in most of them on the same day.  If Super Tuesday cannot decide the nomination contests, it can certainly point in the direction of who will win the nominations.

The question:  After tonight's blowout in Nevada, will Trump's momentum build to the point where psychology takes over and voters simply flock to him to be with the presumed winner?  I was watching the eyes of his Secret Service detail tonight as he shook the hands of his supporters.  Those were serious eyes.  This is no longer a novelty or a celebrity campaign.  No matter what you think of Trump, and I am not a supporter, he must now be considered a strong possibility to be the next president.

Exit polling showed that Trump captured almost every category of voter, including evangelicals.  The fact that evangelicals can support a man with a turbulent marital history, and one who has cursed in public, may show that the evangelical vote has become more flexible, more willing to overlook some sins in favor of other issues.  I'm not an expert on that, but it appears true, for Trump has done well with evangelicals throughout the campaign.

Polling in Super Tuesday states shows Trump leading in almost all of them.  Those numbers can squeeze as the intense ad campaigns being run in those states takes hold.  But unless Marco Rubio really surprises us next Tuesday and starts to challenge Trump numerically, this campaign could be heading for a conclusion rather early.  I think that would be sad.  I'm still hoping for an open convention, but Rubio or Cruz have to break through in the coming weeks.

Rubio captured the number two spot tonight, but was more than 20 points behind Trump.  Cruz, whose campaign suddenly seems wobbly and disorganized, came in third.  Rubio has been getting a number of endorsements this week.  He is the informal head of the "stop Trump" brigade, but Trump, thus far, is not being stopped.

Super Tuesday is sometimes described as the second most important political day in America in a presidential election year.  Looks that way, doesn't it?

February 23, 2016       Permalink

WILL JEB GO ALONG?  – AT 5:55 P.M. ET:   Please remember that the GOP Nevada caucuses take place today.  We'll be monitoring the results.

Today's caucuses represent the first primary event in which Jeb Bush is not participating.  He dropped out after Saturday's South Carolina primary.  Bush was Marco Rubio's political mentor, and it turns out the two will meet.  Will there be a Bush endorsement?  Funds?  Will Bush sign on to any stop-Trump campaign?  He may not have gotten that many votes, but Bush still has a voice in the Republican establishment.  From The New York Times: 

LAS VEGAS — Since Jeb Bush’s withdrawal from the presidential race on Saturday, endorsements from prominent Republicans have been piling up for Senator Marco Rubio of Florida.

Just in the last day, former Senator Bob Dole of Kansas, Senator Orrin Hatch of Utah and Gov. Asa Hutchison of Arkansas have signed on.

But there is one endorsement that remains elusive: Mr. Bush’s.

Leaving Nevada on Tuesday for a day of campaigning in Minnesota and Michigan, Mr. Rubio told reporters that he had spoken on Monday with Mr. Bush, the former governor, who was his mentor in Florida politics. He said the two planned to meet sometime in the near future.

Mr. Rubio said he had not asked for Mr. Bush’s endorsement. “He’s just decompressing from this election,” Mr. Rubio told reporters. “And trying to get going again in the rest of his life. But we’ll meet and talk soon enough.”

He characterized their talk as friendly. “A nice conversation,” he said. “We’re going to get together soon.”

COMMENT:  The big question on the Republican side is whether Trump can be stopped.  I should note that I've never seen a "stop" movement succeed.   Recall that the GOP establishment tried to stop Reagan in 1980, and that the Dem establishment tried to stop Jimmy Carter, the pathetic one, in 1976.  There were plenty of attempts to stop Jack Kennedy in 1960.  Kennedy was seen as boyish and inexperienced.  None of those "stop" efforts succeeded.

There's always a first time.

February 23, 2016       Permalink

ANOTHER IMPORTANT ELECTION – AT 9:56 A.M. ET:  Let's not forget another upcoming election of critical significance to Americans.  Iran votes Friday on a national parliament.  From AFP:

Iran’s former president Mohammad Khatami and his predecessor have urged voters to back reformists and moderates in Friday elections, saying a big turnout is needed to stop hardline conservatives.

Khatami, who is subject to a domestic media ban because of his support for defeated reformist leaders in a disputed 2009 presidential election, took to YouTube late Sunday to send a message to voters.

“After the successful first step in 2013, this coalition should take the second step for the Majlis (parliament),” he said in a four-minute video, dubbing a joint ticket of reformists and moderates as “a list of hope”.

He was referring to incumbent Hassan Rouhani’s 2013 presidential election victory which led to a nuclear deal that ended a 13-year standoff with world powers.

In this week’s election, Rouhani is looking to overturn the majority in parliament of conservatives who resisted the nuclear deal and have also opposed his broader outreach to the West.

Despite the ban on use of his image or words in Iran’s print and broadcast media, Khatami, who served as president from 1997 to 2005, remains an important figure in the pro-Rouhani coalition, the Alliance of Reformists and Government Supporters.

“I suggest that all blocs agree to present the list as the list of hope to the people,” he said.

COMMENT:  We'll follow the Friday election in Iran.  If the moderates win, better for us.  But if the hardliners win, it will be even more difficult to get the Iran nuclear deal to stick.  Betting is on the hardliners, who currently control the parliament.

By the way, this "election" isn't the kind the grownups have.  In order to run you have to be approved by the government.  Not exactly democratic rule.

February 23, 2016       Permalink

AND IN THE OTHER PARTY – AT 9:08 A.M. ET:  Conventional wisdom is back.  It's now believed by the pundit class that Hillary Clinton will put Bernie Sanders away in short order.  From Fox: 

The Inevitable Hillary Clinton has returned.

The media have spoken and again bestowed the cloak of inevitability on the Democratic front-runner.

One five-point win over Bernie Sanders in the Nevada caucuses was all it took. In other words, the Democratic race was fun while it lasted.

You might think the pundits would be allergic to the I-word. After all, they first described Hillary that way in 2007, and yet she lost.

Then they described Hillary that way in 2015, and she plummeted in the polls, finished a few coin flips ahead of Bernie in Iowa and got decimated in New Hampshire.

But here it is in Slate: “Winning Nevada makes Hillary Clinton’s nomination virtually inevitable.”

Or as the Huffington Post’s banner headline put it: “BERNING OUT?”

COMMENT:  Read the whole piece.  It's a very good summary of the Democratic race.  I happen to think that in this case the pundit class is correct.  Bernie is a temporary phenomenon, who got a big boost because Hillary really isn't that popular in her own party.  Also, the early primary states favored Bernie.  It's getting more difficult now.

The Democratic Party machinery is in Hillary's hands.  And she commands the minorities, who dominate the Democratic Party.   

One thing not in Hillary's hands is the FBI.  She can put Bernie away, but they can put her away.

February 23, 2016       Permalink

THIS CRAZY ELECTION YEAR – AT 8:46 A.M. ET:  Nothing seems rational nor predictable this year.  On the Republican side, the assumption has been that Governor John Kasich of Ohio would win his state's primary on March 15th, barely three weeks from now.  Not so fast.  From The Politico:

Donald Trump leads John Kasich by five points in the governor's home state of Ohio, according to the results of the latest Quinnipiac University poll of likely Republican primary voters released Tuesday.

With 31 percent, Trump leads the field ahead of the state's March 15 primary, while Kasich comes in a close second with 26 percent. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz followed with 21 percent, with Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (13 percent) and Ben Carson (5 percent) rounding out the final five candidates. Just 5 percent said they are undecided about their candidate among those choices.

The poll, which was conducted between last Tuesday and Saturday, includes the second choice of supporters of Jeb Bush, who suspended his campaign after a disappointing finish in the South Carolina primary. The numbers — though close, and likely subject to many twists and turns between now and March 15 — are a blow to Kasich, who is hoping a triumph in his home state's winner-take-all primary will propel him to the nomination.

Trump and Cruz are competitive among those identifying as members of the tea party, white, born-again evangelical Christians and those describing themselves as very conservative, within the margin of error. Kasich, meanwhile, is down one point to Trump among moderates and liberals in his state, and down three points among those who described themselves as somewhat conservative.

COMMENT:  We keep pointing out that most people in GOP primaries are not voting for Trump, and that's true.  But he keeps getting more votes than anyone else, and that's also true.

The key question now is whether the psychological power of Trump's victories, minority victories though they may be, will overwhelm all else, and cause the opposition to weaken.  I hope that's not true, and that we can fight through to an open convention, but Trump's sheer power never ceases to amaze.  Who would have thought it a year ago?

February 23,  2016     Permalink